News

Strong jobs report creates Fed easing quandary amid tariff distress

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 117,000 rise in February, the Labor Department said on Friday. The report came amid a global stock rout and rally in safe-haven government bonds after U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff plans sowed fears about a global recession, with the sell-off deepening after China said it would impose additional levies of 34% on American goods.

Fed seen waiting until June to start rate cuts, after big job gains last month

Still, contracts continue to price a full percentage point of Fed rate cuts by year end, and some chance of a fifth cut, as investors worry an escalating trade war will sharply slow economic growth. Bets in short-term U.S. interest-rate futures on more aggressive Fed policy easing had surged overnight, after China announced its own tariffs to counter new U.S. import levies. U.S. employers added 228,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's monthly jobs report showed, far more than even the most optimistic economist polled by Reuters had anticipated.

One of the Fed's top recession alarms sends 2008-style signal

One of the Federal Reserve's preferred recession indicators has this week deteriorated as fast as it did in 2008, the latest sign that bond investors are bracing for a sharp economic slowdown as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. There are many metrics economists and investors use to try to predict a downturn. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields for instance, is a bond market favourite.