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Weaker jobs signal, stronger prices highlight potential Fed dilemma

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Lackluster new U.S. jobs data and a weak report on manufacturing highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve officials that employment could slip even as the risk of a tariff-driven round of inflation limits their ability to do anything about it. Data on hiring and layoffs for February showed a job market that was potentially losing steam more broadly, with a drop in job openings, a slight rise in layoffs, worker quit rates similar to those during the languid job market of the mid-2010s, and near balance in the demand for and supply of available employees. "The small signals the market is showing point to retrenchment rather than expansion," Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote after the release of the job openings and layoffs data for February.

US inflation swaps price in big short-term tariff impact, flag recession risk

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors in financial derivatives called U.S. inflation swaps are betting that President Donald Trump's tariffs will have a hefty short-term impact on consumer prices that will recede in the next few years as recession concerns escalate. Inflation swaps are used to hedge against a rise in prices. Specifically, the receiver agrees to exchange with the payer a fixed amount for floating payments tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for a given notional amount and period of time.