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How concerned Federal Reserve officials were over stagflation risks as they met last month may become more clear on Wednesday in a readout of a gathering held before President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement shook markets and made forecasts for higher inflation and slower growth more widespread. U.S. central bank policymakers acknowledged at their March 18-19 meeting that the outlook had shifted from confidence in slowing inflation and continued growth to a near-universal sense of uncertainty and concern that new U.S. import taxes would raise inflation even as they curbed demand, growth, and perhaps employment. "Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," the Fed said in an updated policy statement on March 19 that also dropped a prior reference to the risks facing the economy as "roughly in balance" to say that it was "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."

LONDON/BELGRADE (Reuters) -Serbian oil firm NIS is struggling to buy oil from traders abroad, while at home its former clients are seeking alternative fuel suppliers as pending U.S. sanctions have impacted operations, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. NIS is majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft and Gazprom and as such is one of Russia's last remaining oil assets in Europe. It is crucial to Serbia's energy security as it operates the Balkan country's only oil refinery.

A trade war ties the Fed’s hands by pushing up inflation at the same time that uncertainty is sapping growth.

Though "a little concerned" that tariffs might lift inflation, at least temporarily, "with growth good and policy in a good place, we have built the time and the ability to just tread slowly and tread carefully," Daly said at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah. Trump announced tariffs last Wednesday that would increase import levies around tenfold to more than 20%, the highest in a century, and global stocks swooned in the days that followed on fears that the escalating trade war would cause a recession.

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Shoppers are expected to spend around $23.6 billion this year, compared with $22.4 billion estimated last year, the trade body's survey showed, with discount stores once again poised to be the top destination for Easter shopping. Prices of eggs, traditionally used for Easter decor and games, have nearly doubled from last year as avian influenza wiped out millions of hens and led to a shortage of eggs in February. Retail bellwether Walmart left out eggs from its yearly Easter promotional meal kit, shared late last month at a lower price than 2024.

Traders boosted bets on Tuesday the Federal Reserve will start cutting its policy rate as soon as next month, as the White House said additional tariffs on imports from China will go into effect on Wednesday in a further escalation of trade hostilities that could slow the economy. Traders put about a 56% chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in May, up from about 40% earlier in the day, based on the prices of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures traded at CME Group. They expect at least four more rate cuts through the end of the year.