One of the Fed's top recession alarms sends 2008-style signal
One of the Federal Reserve's preferred recession indicators has this week deteriorated as fast as it did in 2008, the latest sign that bond investors are bracing for a sharp economic slowdown as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. There are many metrics economists and investors use to try to predict a downturn. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields for instance, is a bond market favourite.