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Off-radar for much of the past week's market turbulence, U.S. inflation updates this week will reveal just how much latitude the Federal Reserve has to meet pumped-up expectations around its first interest rate cut next month. With the S&P500 ending last week basically unchanged despite days of outsize swings, the VIX volatility gauge has returned close to long-term means around 20.

The great inflation spike of the past three years is nearly spent — and economists credit American consumers for helping slay it. “While inflation is down, prices are still high, and I think consumers have gotten to the point where they’re just not accepting it,” Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said last week at a conference of business economists. A more price-sensitive consumer helps explain why inflation has appeared to be steadily falling toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target, ending a period of painfully high prices that strained many people's budgets and darkened their outlooks on the economy.

The median three-year inflation expectation dropped to 2.3% from 2.9% in June to register its lowest reading since the New York Fed launched the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations in 2013. Fed officials - who've been battling high inflation for more than two years - track a range of measures of inflation expectations because they worry that if they begin to drift substantially upward, consumers and businesses will alter their spending behaviors in ways that can make inflation harder to tame. Recent measures of inflation have shown it returning toward the Fed's 2% target, and the central bank is now widely expected to cut interest rates next month.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices were up by more than $1 a barrel on Monday, rising for a fifth consecutive session on intensifying Middle East supply risks and fading fears of a possible U.S. recession. Brent crude futures were up $1.32, or 1.6%, at $80.98 a barrel by 1531 GMT. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate for the assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr.

(Bloomberg) -- Gold rose ahead of key US economic data due later this week, with traders focused on whether the prints will reinforce bets the Federal Reserve will soon pivot to monetary easing.Most Read from BloombergHow a Tiny Midwestern Town Became a Mecca for Modern ArchitectureHow Chicago’s Gigantic Merchandise Mart Is Still Thriving as Office SpaceLos Angeles Sees Remote Work Helping ‘No Car’ 2028 Olympic GamesIn DNC, Chicago’s Embattled Transit System Faces a High-Profile TestNYC Subway R

Chevron has achieved a technological breakthrough, producing first oil from a U.S. Gulf of Mexico field under extreme subsea pressures, the energy company said on Monday. Chevron and partner TotalEnergies expect the Anchor development to produce for 30 years. At its peak, the floating platform will pump up to 75,000 barrels of oil and 28 million cubic feet of natural gas a day.

(Bloomberg) -- UK inflation is expected to pick up for the first time in 2024 in new data that’s likely to keep Bank of England policy makers wary about pushing ahead with further interest rate reductions next month.Most Read from BloombergHow a Tiny Midwestern Town Became a Mecca for Modern ArchitectureHow Chicago’s Gigantic Merchandise Mart Is Still Thriving as Office SpaceLos Angeles Sees Remote Work Helping ‘No Car’ 2028 Olympic GamesIn DNC, Chicago’s Embattled Transit System Faces a High-Pr