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Fed entering tough period for measuring money market liquidity

The Federal Reserve, which wraps up its latest monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, is about to enter one of the more challenging periods of managing what most observers believe is the approaching endgame for its balance sheet drawdown. That's because even as the Fed is expected in coming months to get financial sector liquidity down to levels that will allow it to stop rolling off expiring Treasury and mortgage bonds from its balance sheet, it will be hard to try to get a handle on how tight liquidity is. The U.S. government debt ceiling is again an issue and until that's resolved and borrowing can rise, the current cap will affect Treasury bond issuance in a way that will obscure already difficult efforts to gauge money market liquidity.

Oil prices slip as US inventories rise; tariff concerns in focus

(Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday on a rise in U.S. crude stockpiles and easing concern over Libyan supply, with U.S. tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also in focus. Brent crude futures were down 44 cents, or 0.57%, at $77.05 a barrel by 1400 GMT. The White House said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump still plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on Saturday.

US upstream oil and gas dealmaking hit $105 billion in 2024, Enverus says

Dealmaking in the U.S. upstream oil and gas industry hit $105 billion in 2024, the third highest annual total ever, but activity slowed in the second half as buyers found fewer targets to acquire, consultancy Enverus said on Wednesday. Last year's total deal value fell sharply behind the whopping $192 billion in mergers and acquisitions done in 2023, which included the $60 billion combination of Exxon Mobil and Pioneer Natural Resources. The Permian remained the most desirable acquisition target, but buyers are also looking further afield as opportunities there dry up, according to Enverus' report.

Germany's government slashes its economic growth forecast for this year to 0.3%

The German government on Wednesday slashed its 2025 growth forecast for the country's economy, Europe's biggest, to just 0.3% after it shrank for two consecutive years. The new projection is much lower than the government's previous forecast of 1.1% growth, issued in October. Germany has managed no meaningful economic growth in the past four years as it has struggled to deal with major shifts in the global economy and with structural challenges of its own.

Dollar steadies ahead of Fed rate decision

(Reuters) -The dollar steadied on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with investors on edge for hints of how much interest rates might fall this year, while they broadly expect the central bank to keep policy unchanged for now. Expectations that trade policies under President Donald Trump could boost U.S. growth, but also push up inflation, fuelled bets on higher-for-longer interest rates in the lead-up to the inauguration, supporting the dollar. But as the tariff action investors had braced for has yet to materialise, currency markets have been volatile since Trump took office and the dollar has weakened.

Bets on Big Treasuries Rally Are Booming Before Fed Decision

(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries held onto recent gains ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision as traders ratcheted up bullish bets in hope that Chair Jerome Powell will signal a cut in March is firmly on the table.Most Read from BloombergTrump's Federal Funding Pause Threatens State Financials Housing Aid Uncertain After Trump’s Spending Freeze MemoTexas HOA Charged With Discrimination for Banning Section 8 RentersUS Students’ Reading Scores Drop to Worst in More Than 20 YearsNewsom