New import taxes imposed or potentially in the offing from the Trump administration could raise the average effective tariff rate on goods coming into the U.S. from the current 2.2% to around 17%, while posing "widespread disruptions" focused on manufacturing industries in Midwestern and Southern states, a new analysis from the Richmond Federal Reserve has concluded. Some working estimates of the result of tariffs President Trump imposed in 2018 and 2019 were a net loss of jobs and output to the U.S. economy, the authors noted, with the current more aggressive set of tariffs risking damage also. "Ultimately, the proposed tariffs may raise input costs, disrupt supply chains and result in higher consumer prices, potentially outweighing any targeted employment gains in protected industries," Richmond Fed economists including bank vice president Sonya Waddell and senior economist Marina Azzimonti wrote.
