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The Big Ideas 2025 study from ARK Invest projects Bitcoin 's value in 2030 at roughly $500,000 in the bear case, $1.2 million in the base scenario, and up to $2.4 million in the bull case.

The model underpinning ARK’s views relies on six major sources of capital imports, and it is driven by assumptions of total addressable market (TAM) and varied rates of penetration.

The analysis by the firm highlights institutional investment — spot Bitcoin ETFs in particular — as the biggest driver in the bull case , contributing 43% of total capital inflows.

The "digital gold" narrative stays the biggest driver in the bear and base scenarios, though. Other reasons include corporate treasury allocations, rising market investors looking for a safe refuge from inflation, nation-state treasuries potentially using Bitcoin as a strategic reserve , and the expansion of Bitcoin-based on-chain financial services.

With the exception of Bitcoin's on-chain financial services, which are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of up to 60%, ARK projects a cautious 3% CAGR for the TAMs of most contributors.

The investment firm also emphasizes the fixed supply of Bitcoin, projected to reach around 20.5 million coins by 2030, as a major determinant of value increase.

Bold Bitcoin prediction

ARK Invest thinks that Bitcoin’s future price targets are justified by its increasing role as a global financial asset that is receiving capital inflows from numerous avenues. It's being considered a store of value, especially in developing countries where citizens face inflation and currency devaluation.

The spread of nation-state adoption, starting with nations such as El Salvador and Bhutan, also recently announced by President Donald Trump in the U.S., reinforces the bull case ARK is assuming.

Furthermore, growing corporate adoption of Bitcoin and the growth of on-chain financial services such as the Lightning Network and WBTC are further boosting the capital potential of Bitcoin. These dynamics, Ark says, lend their forecast structural validity.

As per Kraken's price feed , Bitcoin was trading at $95,105.46 at press time.